The Majority of the Unvaccinated Supported Biden in 2020
County populations, vaccinations, and voting records are publicly verifiable data
The Majority of the Unvaccinated Supported Biden in 2020
As of October 1, 2021, there are roughly 98 million adults in the United States who are not fully vaccinated.
A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll showed that 37% of Republicans still will not get vaccinated. Given that there are approximately 49 million registered Republicans in the United States, this only accounts for 18.5 million unvaccinated adults of the estimated 95 million adults yet to be fully vaccinated.
If we extrapolate the 37% of Republicans number to actually mean 37% of Donald Trump’s voters from 2020 will not get vaccinated, we can infer that 27.5 million Donald Trump voters are not willing to get vaccinated.
Diving deeper into the data, we can get a much more comprehensive idea of who the unvaccinated adults in this country are. Breaking down vaccinations by county, we can see total adults who are fully vaccinated, total Biden voters, total Trump voters, and total adult populations.
In order to get an accurate view of the unvaccinated adult population, it must come with the understanding that there are roughly 258 million adults in the United States but only 168 million are registered to vote and only 158 million voted in 2020.
Looking at each county individually, let us take as an example that if a county voted 40% for Trump and 60% for Biden, we can assume that about 40% of the adults in that county support Trump and roughly 60% of adults support Biden. Afterall, an election can be treated as the most accurate polling we will ever have for our population.
If we take the same assumption from earlier that not only 37% of Republicans, not only 37% of Trump Voters, but 37% of Trump “supporters” (the proportional number of adults that can be assumed to support Trump in each county, whether or not they voted), then we can assume that roughly 44 million adult Trump supporters are not fully vaccinated. This leaves at least 54 million unvaccinated individuals who supported Biden or a third-party candidate.